Working Papers

Precautionary Pricing and Markup Cyclicality
Joint with Luis Perez
Bibtex

Scaling Up: How Technology and Policy Shape Firm Dynamics
Bibtex

The Micro–Aggregated Profit Share
Joint with Luis Perez
Bibtex

Published Papers

Merger Guidelines for the Labor Market
Joint with David Berger, Kyle Herkenhoff, Simon Mongey, and Eric Posner
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2025
Code Bibtex Comment on DOJ guidelines

Analysing inflation with semi-structural models
Joint with Filippo Pellegrino, Lucrezia Reichlin, and Giovanni Ricco
Research Handbook on Inflation, 2025
Online Appendix Code Bibtex
Previously circulated as Monitoring the Economy in Real Time: Trends and Gaps in Real Activity and Prices

Nowcasting German GDP: Foreign Factors, Financial Markets, and Model Averaging
Joint with Paolo Andreini, Lucrezia Reichlin, Charlotte Senftleben-König, and Till Strohsal
International Journal of Forecasting, 2023
Bibtex

A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation
Joint with Filippo Pellegrino, Lucrezia Reichlin, and Giovanni Ricco
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2022
Online Appendix Code Bibtex

When is Growth at Risk?
Joint with Mikkel Plagborg-Møller, Lucrezia Reichlin, and Giovanni Ricco
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2020
Online Appendix Code Bibtex
Previously circulated as Financial Variables as Predictors of Real Growth Vulnerability

Non-Technical Articles and Comments

Comment on DOJ Draft Merger Guidelines (2023)
Joint with David Berger, Kyle Herkenhoff, Simon Mongey, and Eric Posner
August 2023
Bibtex

The Inflation Puzzle in the Euro Area – It's the Trend not the Cycle!
Joint with Filippo Pellegrino, Lucrezia Reichlin, and Giovanni Ricco
VoxEU, October 2019

Low Inflation for Longer
Joint with Filippo Pellegrino, Lucrezia Reichlin, and Giovanni Ricco
VoxEU, January 2018

The US Sneezes and the Eurozone Catches a Cold
Joint with Alberto Caruso, Filippo Pellegrino, and Lucrezia Reichlin
VoxEU, February 2016