Working Papers

Monitoring the Economy in Real Time: Trends and Gaps in Real Activity and Prices, with Filippo Pellegrino, Lucrezia Reichlin, and Giovanni Ricco
January 2022 [Bibtex]


Published Papers

Nowcasting German GDP: Foreign Factors, Financial Markets, and Model Averaging, with Paolo Andreini, Lucrezia Reichlin, Charlotte Senftleben-König, and Till Strohsal
Accepted at International Journal of Forecasting [Bibtex]

A Model of the Fed’s View on Inflation, with Filippo Pellegrino, Lucrezia Reichlin, and Giovanni Ricco
Accepted at The Review of Economics and Statistics [Online Appendix, Code, Bibtex]

When is Growth at Risk?, with Mikkel Plagborg-Møller, Lucrezia Reichlin, and Giovanni Ricco
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2020 [Online Appendix, Code, Bibtex]


Unpublished Papers

Financial Variables as Predictors of Real Growth Vulnerability, with Lucrezia Reichlin and Giovanni Ricco
Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper, January 2020


Easy Reading

The Inflation Puzzle in the Euro Area – It’s the Trend not the Cycle!, with Filippo Pellegrino, Lucrezia Reichlin, and Giovanni Ricco
VoxEU, October 2019

Low Inflation for Longer, with Filippo Pellegrino, Lucrezia Reichlin, and Giovanni Ricco
VoxEU, January 2018

The US Sneezes and the Eurozone Catches a Cold, with Alberto Caruso, Filippo Pellegrino, and Lucrezia Reichlin
VoxEU, February 2016